While many people have already been vaccinated across the country, Lea County’s own numbers remain dismally low at just around 20% of total residents being fully vaccinated against COVID-19.
New Mexico as a whole if faring a bit better with total vaccination around 56% as of July 23. While the state is listed as an area of “Substantial Transmission”, Lea County is more severe as an area of “High Transmission”
In particular, the new delta variant is a growing concern around the world, already responsible for many spikes in COVID-19 infections overseas. Now this more contagious variant is making its way around the US. Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top infectious disease expert for the US, recently said during an appearance on ABC News, “Things are going to get worse.”
While Dr. Fauci says lockdowns are unlikely, he did stress the importance of vaccination and called the recent surge in infections “an outbreak of the unvaccinated”. Thankfully, because many Americans are vaccinated, Dr. Fauci and other experts feel the pandemic won’t get as bad as the worst of 2020, unless a vaccine-resistant strain develops in the interim.
The possibility of a vaccine-resistant strain evolving is a top worry at the moment, and the risk of that happening increases as infections increase because every infection is a new opportunity for the virus to mutate. This is perhaps the greatest danger the unvaccinated pose to their vaccinated neighbors, being a fertile incubator for a mutating COVID-19 strand.
However, the unvaccinated may also be a direct threat to people who are vaccinated as early studies suggest some “breakthrough” infections are possible. While the primary vaccines available in the US have proven to be effective at preventing infection and lowering symptoms, the CDC has reports of over 10,000 infections among vaccinated Americans between January and April of 2021. This is a very low number, but does indicate that people who are fully vaccinated may still be able to contract COVID-19.
The concerns over breakthrough infections, the spreading delta variant and the overall increased infections across the country are all reasons the CDC recently updated its guidelines for vaccinated people. The CDC now suggests that people who are vaccinated continue to wear masks when indoors in public in areas of “substantial or high transmission”. This would include much of New Mexico.
The updated mask mandate is about transmission, according Dr. Fauci. “You want them to wear a mask, so that if in fact they do get infected, they don’t spread it to vulnerable people…”
While Lea County only has about 20% of its population fully vaccinated, the number does go up to nearly 30% when subtracting for those under 12 who are not eligible for vaccination yet. That is still much lower than the state and national averages.
Fortunately for those vaccinated, death or serious illness is rare should a breakthrough infection occur. The unvaccinated, however, are still at risk.
“From the standpoint of illness, hospitalization, suffering and death, the unvaccinated are much more vulnerable because the vaccinated are protected from severe illness, for the most part, but when you look at the country as a whole. And getting us back to normal, the unvaccinated, by not being vaccinated, are allowing the propagation and the spread of the outbreak which ultimately impacts everybody,”
Dr. Anthony Fauci, ABC News
So far despite the designation as an area of substantial transmission, New Mexico has not reimplemented any pandemic precautions. Lea County has not implemented any precautions at a local level either. Though many places still have social distancing and mask requirement signs posted, these rules are rarely enforced except at medical facilities, nursing homes and other places with highly vulnerable populations. An average trip to the grocery store or Walmart will look much the same as it did pre-pandemic, with only a handful of people, if that, wearing masks or taking any precautions.
The Lea County Fair & Rodeo, which was cancelled due to the pandemic last year, is currently underway despite the increased infections. This is one of the largest events in the area and draws lots of people from all over.
In many ways, the rollout of COVID-19 vaccinations have facilitated a return to normal, but the pandemic is still far from over. While the vaccinated are generally low risk, they can still help spread the virus, and people who are unvaccinated may be returning to normal as well despite the direct and more severe risks to them in particular.
While lockdowns seem unlikely now, it is impossible to say for sure where this pandemic is heading. It may be on the way out as vaccines are proving effective, but it could also be prolonged and even worsened by the many unvaccinated people around the world and here in Lea County.
